Market Pulse
Read the macro tape and trace how events move assets — regime diagnosis, cross-asset signals, and event-to-market transmission.
Methodology
Dalio Economic Regime Quadrant
The macro environment is placed in one of four quadrants defined by growth direction × inflation direction — Goldilocks (growth up, inflation down), Inflationary Growth (both up), Stagflation (growth down, inflation up), and Recession (both down). Each quadrant maps to distinct asset preferences, so the regime call anchors everything that follows.
Murphy Intermarket Analysis
Cross-asset relationships reveal what the market is actually pricing, not just what the headline index is doing. Dollar strengthening with falling commodities signals deflation; bonds leading stocks signals late-cycle tightening; rising VIX with widening credit spreads signals stress. When cross-asset signals conflict with the tape, the cross-asset read wins.
IMF / BIS transmission framework
Events propagate to asset prices through five channels — interest rate, credit, asset price, exchange rate, and expectations. Not all channels apply to every event: a rate cut typically runs through interest rate, asset price, and expectations; a tariff runs through exchange rate and expectations. The 2–3 most relevant channels carry the analysis, the rest are noted and set aside.
Market structure and forward look
Regime and intermarket signals are anchored to breadth (advance / decline), leadership (which sectors lead), volume (confirms or questions the trend), and key catalysts — closing with one or two actionable takeaways and the next data point to watch.
Example prompts
- “How is the latest rate cut re-pricing risk assets across equities, bonds, and FX?”
- “Are we in a stagflation regime? What’s the cross-asset tape saying?”
- “What’s the likely market impact if the Fed holds rates through year-end?”
- “Diagnose the current macro environment — where are we in the cycle?”